The Perfect Storm...

I once had a boss who used to love to use the phrase 'it's a perfect storm' whenever the shit was about to hit the fan, usually after reeling off a list of all the factors that were contributing to the mire we found ourselves in at any given time.

That phrase sprung to mind earlier today as I scrolled through some fairly suicidal posts on social media following Derby County's awful display against Swansea City. The contributors (of which there were many as you can imagine) were mainly blaming poor (and lack of) recruitment as the main reasons for Derby's latest lackluster display. I feel this has been brewing for a while.... I'm not convinced it's the only reason today was so poor. But something is definitely brewing.

Blaming the transfer window alone is too simplistic in my view, as I think there have been a number of other factors, from pre- season and injuries to lack of fitness and tactics. But it is a primary cause.

The failed investment has been the background to the whole summer since May. Rather like a prospective house purchaser who comes round and measures up for carpets and curtain and leaves you believing the sale is as good as done, Derby believed that the Saudis were going to allow all their 'plan A' signings to come off, and I rather suspect there were no plan B, C etc progressed to any great degree. I imagine they were well and truly filed under the heading 'not required'. The fact that someone (or group of people) within the club allowed themselves to be hoodwinked to this extent is alarming, it's not the first time this has happened of course, and I can imagine that a number of players were lined up on the premise of the investment. Ben Brereton Diaz would almost certainly be one prime example, being allowed to rehab after a knee op at Moor Farm, no doubt with Eustace looking in on him from time to time, feeding him grapes like a hospital visitor and assuring Diaz that it was just a matter of 'when and not if'. And that's one that we are aware of. How many others are out there whom Eustace has lured on the premise of the takeover and then the door was slammed shut?

I can only imagine the panic when news of the investment falling through landed. Our dog once hopped on the dining room table and ate all the pepperoni and cooked chicken we'd laid out as a fun activity making pizzas for my daughter's birthday party. Turki Alalshiekh was my pepperoni and cooked chicken. Clowes probably had his head in his hands like I had, whilst Stephen Pearce and the recruitment team have had to hurriedly head to the equivalent of Tesco Express and source some cheap meat alternatives. Would we have shelled out 6 million quid on Bobby Clark alone had we known that the investment wasn't happening? I'm not sure we would. It's rather like Clowes buying a round of expensive drinks at the bar only to find when its other people's turn to dip their hands in their pockets, they've all sodded off home. We are looking at loans for untested Premier League starlets and basically anyone we can lay our hands on. The premise of improving on the squad we have, and only bringing in players if they can improve us has been compromised with a need for bodies full stop.

Pre- season was underwhelming. Eustace's obsession with taking the team to Austria reminds me of a someone who insists on taking their family to the same resort every year because they do a great English breakfast and can easily grab a sun lounger. Throw in the usual mix of teams from lower leagues to play against (surely some from higher leagues would be a good challenge too) and never seeming to get an established first 11 ahead of the first game seem to set Derby on the back foot. How much of this is down to Eustace I can't say, but having some of his first team playing a match in Mansfield and the rest in Burton 24 hours later doesn't seem like ideal preparation to me. Especially when you want to use lack of time playing together as an excuse a few weeks later. Doesn't really wash.

After the Swansea game, Eustace gave Radio Derby his most telling interview yet. I normally play my own little game of 'Eustace bingo' when he's interviewed, such are his repetitive and predictable answers, and I often feel sorry for Dom Dietrich as he tries to drag something vaguely entertaining from him. This time, Eustace was keen to stress that the team's performance was entirely down to him, so much as to be able to ensure the listener was left in no uncertain terms of that being his sole area of responsibility and influence. Any questions around recruitment and the lack of success thereof he laid squarely at the club, and my take from that is that he is as equally hacked off as the fanbase. I think he's been fed a line on the investment and has now had to face the music to the press. And he also referenced body language which I thought interesting. Clark's body language at the end of the Swansea game was that of a man who has made an error committing 4 years of his life to the Rams.

But as per the perfect storm, and their being other factors in play, I think Eustace himself may be a factor here. His MO is to galvanise a group of players, make them hard to beat, become attritional and wear the opposition down. Not a lot of glamour. That doesn't tend to work when your team decide today is the day when they can't tackle, control or pass the football. I'm not convinced he's a coaching messiah and that's not to devalue the excellent job he did in avoiding relegation in his first season and get us up to 8th (albeit in a very poor standard of the championship) last season. He promotes his credentials as a manager who will bring young players through, but that rings a bit hollow to me as he doesn't seem to show great faith in the youngsters. That's normally the sign of a manager who thinks he's still got a few cards to play (like Warne had) as opposed to one who's got no cards at all such as Rooney who basically had a choice of Cashin or Colleen to play at centre half at one point. But the lack of style or being outclassed when you are losing tends to lose the fanbase a lot quicker than losing with a bit of flair, or having a go (see Keegan or Ardiles).

I'm also loathed to single out specific players, but some are quite clearly not at the standard or not fit enough. But so many had an off day against Swansea, it seems to be ducking the issue to not name names.

Sanderson was bailed out so often last season by Matt Clarke, it seems that no one has given Langas the memo that you need to not only concentrate on your own game but also Sanderson's as Clarke tended to do. Perhaps Sanderson takes his 'Agent Sanderson' persona onto the pitch with him. Perhaps he's trying to broker deals with opponents during games? To end the window with no other obvious central defenders to cover is unthinkable. Johnston is no better defender on current showing than Joe Ward, certainly not sufficiently so to outweigh what Ward offers going forward, so Ward can think himself unlucky not to be first choice currently.

Taylor at left back looks steady, and it isn't worth removing him to bring in Fozzie. I think our evergreen Forsyth may well end up having to form a back 3 with Langas and Sanderson, if only to help fill gaps and use Ward where he'd be most effective, pushing up wide on the right.

But such is the lack of obvious style or patterns of play, I'm totally unable to try and work out what Eustace will do with the rest of the team. Travis and Mowatt look a carbon copy of each other at times, only Mowatt doesn't get booked every game, and what we do know is Clark has to be on the ball centrally as does Sczmodics. Sczmodics and Brewster don't look anything like fit. Not having Big Pat or Morris available is crippling us too. Salverson, for all his honest endeavour isn't the answer. And we seem to have collected a number of others that I'm not convinced Eustace got exactly what he wanted. I honestly think he's given the recruitment team a profile of a type of player that he wants, and they've come back with something entirely different. A bit like those 'search for a home shows' where the couple want an idylic cottage in the Cotswalds and the presenter reveals the mystery property, a 2 bed flat in inner Wolverhampton.

One factor that Eustace can't control is the expectation from supporters. Finishing 8th last season was a couple of places higher than I thought we would- the table doesn't lie and you finish where you deserve to. But with the trajectory being ever upward since Clowes takeover, the natural assumption amongst some supporters is that this season the Rams must be heading towards the top 6, or better still the automatic places? And this is where the expectation meets modern day entitlement, lack of reality and experience in understanding that the Rams are simply not at the races money wise even amongst the top half of the Championship. The parachute clubs, not to mention those getting massive fees for player sales or sell on clauses, are dwarfing Derby's budget. I honestly can't see Derby having any major money left to spend, unless Zetterstrom gets sold, but that would very much give the impression of a flash sale and given the time left to get other deals in place, Derby would have to have some very hot irons in the fire to be able to strike were they to get an offer for the big Swede.

All will come to a head on 1st September. I sense that we face a long hard winter watching the Rams unless some incredible deals are done in the next 24/ 48 hours. But with no money, Eustace needing to get more expansive with his style of play (and not having the tools to do it in fairness), injuries to key players, lack of sexy signings, poor form, and discontent amongst supporters aimed at the recruitment team and Stephen Pearce, it could be very stormy indeed by the end of the week.